Soccer xG (Expected Goals) Calculator

The Soccer xG (Expected Goals) Calculator estimates the quality of a shot as a goal probability. Give it the shot's distance, sideways position, body part and game situation, and it returns an xG value between 0 and 1, draws the shooting angle on a top-down pitch, rates the chance, and shows the full calculation. It turns the vague question "was that a good chance?" into a single, comparable number.

What is xG (Expected Goals)?

Expected Goals (xG) is a measure of the quality of a goal-scoring chance. It is the probability that a given shot will be scored, expressed on a scale from 0 to 1. A shot worth 0.25 xG would, on average, be scored 25 times out of 100. xG has become the headline advanced metric in modern football because it tells you how good the chances were, not just how many goals happened to go in on the day.

The xG Formula

Most xG models use logistic regression. The shot's features are combined into a single score, and that score is converted to a probability with the logistic (sigmoid) function. This calculator uses two geometric features — the shooting angle and the distance — plus adjustments for body part and game situation.

Here w = 7.32 m is the goal width, x is the distance from the goal line, y is the sideways offset from the centre, and d is the straight-line distance to goal. The coefficients in this tool were calibrated by least-squares so the output matches typical professional shot outcomes.

Why Angle and Distance Both Matter

The two biggest drivers of xG are how far out the shot is and how wide the goal appears from that spot. The further away you are, the less likely you are to score. But two shots from the same distance can be very different chances: a player square in front of goal sees the whole net, while a player out by the byline sees only a thin sliver between the posts. That is why a shot from the corner of the six-yard box is so much harder than one from the penalty spot, even though they are a similar distance away.

Typical xG Values

What Affects a Shot's xG?

How to Use This Calculator

1. Choose your units and distance: Pick yards or metres and enter how far the shot is from the goal line.
2. Enter the sideways offset: Type how far the shot is from the centre of the goal. Use 0 for a shot directly in front.
3. Pick body part and situation: Choose foot or header, and the game situation — open play, fast break, one-on-one, free kick, set piece or penalty.
4. Click Calculate: See the xG value, the chance-quality rating, the shooting-angle cone on the pitch diagram, how it compares to a penalty, and the full step-by-step breakdown.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is xG (Expected Goals)?

xG, or Expected Goals, is a statistic that measures the quality of a goal-scoring chance. It is the probability that a shot will result in a goal, on a scale from 0 to 1, based on factors such as distance to goal, the angle to the goalposts, the body part used and the game situation. A shot with an xG of 0.30 would be expected to be scored about 30 times out of 100.

How is xG calculated?

xG is calculated with a statistical model, usually logistic regression, trained on thousands of historical shots. The model takes shot features like the shooting angle and distance to goal, combines them into a single score, and converts that score into a probability between 0 and 1 using the logistic (sigmoid) function. Our calculator uses coefficients calibrated so the output matches typical professional shot outcomes.

What is a good xG value for a shot?

Most shots have a low xG. A long-range effort is often below 0.05, a shot from the edge of the box is around 0.05 to 0.08, a chance inside the six-yard box can be 0.3 to 0.5 or higher, and a penalty is about 0.76. Any single shot above roughly 0.3 is considered a big chance.

Why does shot angle matter so much in xG?

The angle is how wide the goal appears from the shot location. A central shot sees the full width of the goal, while a shot from a tight angle near the byline sees only a sliver of goal to aim at. Two shots can be the same distance from goal but have very different xG values purely because of the angle, which is why a shot from the corner of the six-yard box is far harder than one straight in front.

Why is a penalty always about 0.76 xG?

A penalty is taken from a fixed spot, 12 yards out and dead centre, with no defenders in the way. Because every penalty is essentially identical, xG models do not compute its geometry. Instead they assign penalties their long-run historical conversion rate, which is roughly 76 percent in professional football.

Why is the xG of a header lower than a foot shot?

Headers are converted less often than foot shots from the same position because they are harder to direct and generate less power, and they usually come from crosses into a crowded box. xG models account for this by lowering the probability for headers, which is why this calculator reduces the xG when you select header instead of foot.

Additional Resources

• Expected Goals - Wikipedia
• Logistic Regression - Wikipedia